Slowing the Steamroller

John Kerry did not get his way tonight, he still was still victorious but the expected margin of his victory might well serve as a warning. There is still work to do on his fellow Democrats, the near loss will serve to get him back on message for them. Having taken advantage of his front runner status the last few weeks, Kerry had shifted his candidacy to more of an attack George Bush front, taking for granted that his Democratic opponents were soon to disappear.

Taking advantage of that window of opportunity to sell himself to Wisconsin voters, Sen. John Edwards found himself a close, very close second in that state's primary tonight. Edwards had been busy exploring issues close to the hearts of the folks in Wisconsin, unemployment and health care. Like many Northern states, Wisconsin has been hard hit by a number of issues, closed or re-located plants, farms in crisis, rising health care costs and concerns. The issues that real people are truly concerned about.

Kerry's campaign got caught up in a sideshow of bimbosticity, the Drudge Report, letting loose with wild rumours of supposed womanizing by Kerry. While certainly not a campaign issue, Kerry had to at least address the problem, which he did, stating that there was nothing to the reports. So far it hasn't developed into a campaign crisis for him. His other focus this last week or so has been the George Bush war debate, caught up in the sparring over whether the President actually served any real purpose during the Vietnam War, or if he even served at all.

While those two brushfires burned, Edwards just shook hands, made speeches and apparently won some votes. For Edwards his presentation as a son of a mill worker who made himself better, had more resonance to the common man or woman, than Kerry's monied past and present. Edwards' populist image has been giving his campaign a certain boost. Making Kerry realize that this may not be the slam dunk, he previously thought it was going to be.

Now Kerry is still in a commanding position, and more than likely at the end of the day will be the Democratic nominee (unless his campaign dissolves into repetitive bouts of scandal). The victory as close as it was, is still a victory. It's his 16th primary win out of 18, Edwards has won only one. Kerry also holds almost a three to one lead in delegates to the convention, so Kerry is still in fairly good shape.

What the Edwards near victory does do though is create the perception of a race. It raises questions about whether Kerry is as electable as first thought. And with key primaries to come in California, New York, Ohio and other states in two weeks, Super Tuesday should be a good barometer for the Kerry campaign. There are 1,151 votes are up for grabs on March 2nd, should Edwards continue to do well then, the Kerry machine will have to readjust their candidates platform and presentation.

The big loser again tonight was Howard Dean, who finished a disappointing third. The Dean campaign has been in free fall for the last month or so. Yet another senior campaign official was dumped earlier today, the candidate not willing to hear the message. Most of his labour support has drifted away, while the voters take a look at him and then choose to go in a different direction.

His speech tonight was actually one of his better ones, reminiscent of the early days of the campaign when the buzz for him had started to build. He touched on the issue of unemployment and jobs that have left the state never to return. A theme well received by the population but not rewarded at the ballot box. It was a passionate address, one in which he did not say he was quitting the race. Indeed earlier in the day he had been suggesting he wants to carry on until Super Tuesday.

Many now think it's only a matter of time for Dean. He might hang around for a bit so as to be a kingmaker or angle for a position on any eventual ticket. But his dreams of becoming President were dashed long ago. His campaign was rather mercurial, a fast launch he raised millions of dollars off the internet. Democrat activists and newcomers showering his campaign with the funds to carry on. It's actually quite ironic, as his campaign has crashed to the ground, much like those dot com stocks of a few years ago. Lots of flash, but after a sober second look the investors, in this case the voters, have gone on to reinvest elsewhere.

The question now is will they go with Kerry.com or Edwards.org, Super Tuesday will go a long way to giving us an answer.