Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Nathan Cullen returned to office with sizeable majority in Skeena-BV


While the Conservatives will continue to form the government of the day in Ottawa, local representation will remain in the hands of the incumbent New Democrat MP Nathan Cullen.

Cullen pulled out to an impressive lead from the earliest of the returns and had more than secured enough of the vote long before the final votes would be counted in Skeena-Bulkley Valley.

Cullen claimed his victory by 13 per cent from his nearest competitor Sharon Smith of the Conservatives, Corinna Morhart claimed third place for the Liberals, fighting off the challenge of Hondo Arendt for third, but only after trailing the Green Party candidate for the bulk of the evening's counting.
.
The Christian Heritage and Canada Action Parties pulled up the rear far off in the distance as neither Rod Taylor nor Mary-Etta Goodacre made much of a breakthrough in their run for office.

The surprise of the night however, was how the Liberal vote in the riding, like much of the country just disappeared off the charts. Morhart's total vote of 1,895 continues a slide in Liberal fortunes in the riding, which once upon a time had elected a Liberal as the region's Member of Parliament. Of course that was many. many years ago, and since the last time Iona Campagnola spoke on behalf of the riding as a cabinet minister in the late sixties, a lot of time has gone by and a lot of voters have found new homes.

In the end the riding was a two horse race as was expected, with Sharon Smith claiming 36.5 per cent of the vote compared to Nathan Cullen's 49.7 per cent. Leaving her with an insurmountable hill to climb on the way to Parliament Hill and her bid to take the spot as a Conservative MP in Ottawa.

The numbers break down much the same as they did in 2006, with the exception of the Liberal free fall, which places the once major force in BC politics dangerously close to fringe territory.

Nathan Cullen claimed 48.3 per cent of the vote in 2006, and while he actually attracted less votes in 2008 he took a higher share of the vote at 49.7 per cent. Mrs. Smith's totals also came close to the last elections numbers, as she picked up a gain of about 3% of the vote but found less overall votes than the last Conservative candidate in the 2006 election.
.
In the end, despite Mrs. Smith's much documented wish to be the go to person in the riding, the voters however decided that they were more than content with Mr. Cullen's representation of Skeena-Bulkley Valley.

The most significant story however came at the expense of Corinna Morhart who watched as the Liberal support evaporated in the riding, dropping from 12 percent in 2006 to just over 5 percent this year, a position which left her party dangerously close to dropping below the Green Party who almost doubled their percentage of the vote this year as Hondo Arendt found 542 more voters to mark an X under the Green banner.

The Liberals never seemed to gain any momentum in the campaign and it seemed as though Morhart had been left alone to carry the Liberal flag, no heavy hitters (such as they may be in BC) from Liberaldom managed to join her in the riding and the party seemed to provide little in the way of funds to present their message with advertising in the riding.
.
A decision that would clearly be reflected by their ever decreasing vote totals in the riding and the nation for that matter. Combine that with the nature of the two way race between Smith and Cullen and it seemed as though her bid was doomed before it even got under way.

The Elections Canada website provides a wealth of information on the 2008 vote, including a scorecard for the Skeena-Bulkley Valley riding. As the voting data is examined and eventually posted it will be interesting to study just how the riding broke down the vote from west coast to inland portions of the Bulkley Valley and from northern reaches to the south.

The stats with 234 of 236 polls having reported in, provided this snap shot of the riding's voting inclinations. A snap shot that highlights the twin polarities of the riding and reduces the remaining parties to distant also rans along the way.

Green Party Hondo Arendt 1,606 --- 4.7%
NDP-New Democratic Party Nathan Cullen 16,978 --- 49.7% ** elected**
CAP Mary-Etta Goodacre 108 --- 0.3%
Liberal Corinna Morhart 1,895 --- 5.6%
Conservative Sharon Smith 12,458--- 36.5%
Christian Heritage Party Rod Taylor 1,090--- 3.2%

One disturbing trend for the election was the turnout at the polls which saw 56.9 per cent of eligible voters take the time to attend to a polling station and cast a vote, down from the 63 percent of the population that voted in 2006.
.
Perhaps indicative of a weariness of the voters of the need to go to the polls every couple of years, mainly because the politicians we send to Ottawa can't find enough common ground to keep Parliament working.
.
It's a sign that all the parties might wish to take note of as they prepare to return to Ottawa under yet another minority government situation.


No comments: