A bit of crow with my humble pie!

Hmm, guess Math never was my strongest subject after all.

First off THE LOCAL RACE, which I will fully admit I blew chunks on. It was nowhere near as close as I thought it would be, part of that is due to a solid campaign from Nathan Cullen, who tended to stay focused on the local issues, without the hyperbole of the other competitors.

At over 18,000 votes, Cullen bested Mike Scott by close to 6,000 votes. The imploding Liberal vote instead of splitting as I thought it might went almost entirely to the NDP. The Liberals lost 3237 votes from the last election, the NDP went up 4446! That was the margin of victory and defined the impact that Cullen had in collecting that Liberal dissatisfaction. The Conservatives even lost 176 votes from the last election. That drop is perhaps a bit indicative of some public discomfort with the candidate that they ran and his approach to the race.

The NDP took the Skeena-Bulkley Valley riding with 48 % of the vote. Up 11 % from the last election. That is a pretty good endorsement of his work in Ottawa and providing a measure of the respect he has achieved while working in the riding and on its issues. The Skeena-Bulkley Valley voters chose to have a check and a balance, as opposed to a government backbencher. In that decision, the riding was not alone, it’s a theme that was shared with a number of other ridings across the country.


And now on to the How I did as opposed to as I said I would do.
(Slight fluctuations will occur as leads change hands in a few ridings)

PREDICTIONS

CONSERVATIVES 157 Actual Seats won125
LIBERALS 67 Actual Seats won 103
BLOC 58 Actual Seats won 51
NDP 26 Actual Seats won 28
IND 0 Actual Seats won 1
GREEN 0 Actual Seats won 0

The Liberals held the urban areas better than I thought, I had felt that the NDP would give them trouble in the urban areas and they did, but not enough to allow some of the Conservative candidates to come up the middle there. Conservative gains were mainly in the rural areas of Ontario and Quebec for the most part, they took all of Alberta with no surprise and did not do as well as I thought they would in BC.

The Conservative gains in Quebec bode well for a federalist beach head in the province, the Bloc not only lost seats which surprised me greatly, they also lost popular vote. The losers there of course were the Liberals which saw the bulk of their vote bleed over to the Conservatives as the campaign wound down. But even with the loss is a glimmer of hope, they weren't wiped off the map as the Bloc had predicted, so there is room to rebuild . The Bloc will become rather marginalized in the upcoming Parliament which isn’t going to be brought down anytime soon, with the Conservatives making inroads there and the Liberals preparing to rebuild the brand, the days of peeking at that 50% popular vote may be at an end for the Bloc.

The NDP picked up two more seats than I predicted, for the most part though they did very well, no doubt benefiting from the park a vote crowd in the Liberal ranks who chose not to listen to Buzz Hargrove. They took the labour stronghold of Hamilton back from the Liberals, which is a major gain for Layton and a major embarrassment for Hargrove who seemed to cuddle up too close to the Martin campaign. The NDP also scored well in Toronto and Vancouver, two large urban areas that will continue to be a well of support for them in elections to come.

The lone independent (or is he an independiste?) is interesting, Andre Arthur a rather controversial talk show host in Quebec City wrested the seat from all the mainstream Quebec parties. So unlikely was it that he might win, that nobody put together a profile of the guy. Imagine Howard Stern in Congress and think of the wonderful repercussions that may come our way. Could be the first time that CPAC will have to install a seven second delay.

If Stephen Harper wishes to get rid of the CRTC, he’ll have one vote for sure!

As for Harper, it’s probably one of those nights of mixed emotions, he’s achieved the Holy Grail of Canadian politics, but without a mandate for massive change that many in his party probably had wished for. There is an upside to his minority government, he’s probably guaranteed at least two years of uninterrupted governance, the Liberals about to launch a leadership campaign won’t be looking to head back to the polls anytime soon, nor will the NDP with their increased numbers want to tempt fate anytime soon.

The Conservatives have been handed a chance to show that their plans for government won’t be the things of scary Liberal advertisements. A cautious agenda with some strong social legislation, combined with fiscal prudence may just reassure those Canadians who had concerns about giving him the keys to 24 Sussex Drive without any questions. There is political hay for him to make in a minority government situation, while for the Conservatives a majority would have been better, having the chance to prove themselves will be a true test and a chance show that they are the regenerated party that they say they are.

The results are not the worst thing that could have happened to Canada. The people expressed their distaste for the sense of Liberal entitlement of the last dozen years. The proponents of separation in Quebec were dealt a setback, despite the feel good spin they tried to put on things (losing popular vote and seats is not the fast track to independence, no matter how you spin that!) They rewarded the NDP for being the conscience of the nation and they did not succumb to the idea of being fearful of a leader from the right side of the political spectrum.

Harper’s challenge in a minority government will be to provide solid leadership and policies while balancing the intricacies of the minority situation. The Conservatives now have to address just what it is that Canadians want in their government and redesign their party template, otherwise that 155 seat majority will remain elusive for them.

In short, Canadians are taking Harper for a test drive. If things are smooth and there are no flat tires along the way, they just may buy that shiny new car. If not, well there will be a few more models coming on line in a couple of years and one of them will have someone brand new behind the wheel!