And the yeas have the vote!

Oh the weather outside is frightful, and the leaders they are all quite full, As long as we’ve no place to go, let us vote, let us vote, let us vote.

And so it begins that long slow crawl to a new government. Or maybe the same old government dressed up as new, we’ll know better towards the end of January.

Paul Martin will be at the front door of the Governor General’s residence bright and early on Tuesday morning, with a date in his head and bearing writs of election in his hands for all 308 seats of Parliament.

At dissolution the Parliament consisted of 133 Liberals, 98 Conservatives, 53 Bloc Quebecois, 18 NDP, 4 Independents and 2 vacant seats. Hundreds of Canadians will place their names on ballots over the next few weeks, in hope of becoming one of the next group of 308. Many are nominated but only a few are elected, Tuesday launches the latest collection from the starting gate.

This campaign promises a two stage evolution, a phony campaign of the next couple of weeks followed by a Christmas break and then a dash for the finish line of Election Day. Will the campaign be a negative affair before Christmas, or shall glad tidings and peace on earth wash over the campaigners until that last New Years toast has been made? It seems unlikely that any of the political parties will strike quickly with negative tones and unseemly ads while we all have thoughts of family, presents, religious devotions and holidays on our minds. But once we ring in the New Year, we’ll no doubt see the gloves come off.

Each party has something to gain and just as much to lose as they begin the quest for our votes. The Prime Minister of course has his job to lose, should the people of Canada not accept his solemn word that the Sponsorgate scandal has been effectively dealt with and won’t ever happen again on his watch. The stench of that pile of rotting fish has been filtered to a degree through the Gomery Inquiry; the hope of the Liberals is that enough of that smell is gone and that the Canadian public is a forgiving lot. Having spent the pre-amble days to the election call in an orgy of spending, the Liberals will be counting on their feel good agenda of growth and social programs to bring the voters back to the fold.

The Conservatives under Stephen Harper have an even more important date with destiny, with a nervous Canadian public worried about hidden agendas and secret plans, it will be up to Harper to shake off his cloak of distance and give the Canadian voter a reason to take the great leap to his platform. The Conservative task is quite simple, show Canadians that there is nothing to fear from a Conservative government; in fact they must prove to Canadians that a tired old Liberal government is better off in opposition for a spell. The only way that happens is if Canadians are convinced that Harper and his fellow Conservatives have a sane, stable and inclusive plan for the nation.

Gilles Duceppe is perhaps the one guy most looking forward to knocking on doors and drinking egg nog with the voters. In his province of Quebec (the only place that his party runs candidates) the mood is one of euphoria for the Bloc. There is an undercurrent of anger against the Liberals that Duceppe has tapped into. There’s a very good chance that Bloc MP’s of the recent parliament, will have a large number of new faces crossing the bridges of the Ottawa River by next January to join them. Quebecers will be looking to send the Liberals a message and there isn’t much of another option beyond the Bloc at the moment in the province for that. It will be interesting to see if an increased presence by the Bloc after this campaign will be considered a strong sign of support for independence. So far in the life of the Bloc that has not been the case, it’s been more like taking out an insurance policy, hedging ones bets if you will. Regardless, a strong Bloc return will have a resonance in the rest of Canada and will most certainly shape the tone of the next Parliament.

Then there is Jack Layton, the NDP leader has played both sides of the fence in this 38th Parliament. Layton spent the spring and summer wringing concessions out of the Liberals to keep the government alive, only to offer up his own timetable for an election. His suggestion was summarily rejected by a rather unimpressed Prime Minister. Now Layton has combined forces with Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe, singing the chorus that his government has lost its authority to govern.

The trick for Layton will be to try and convince voters that he’s more than just an opportunist. The one advantage the NDP always have in these campaigns is that they can promise the world and never expect to have to deliver it. The test of a serious campaign is the ability to promote realistic options for the Canadian public, plans that tap into the nations desires while at the same time keep the finances in check. The cynicism with our government is at one of its highest levels ever, the NDP could pick up some seats by feeding off of that feeling of frustration that Canadians have, all he has to do is explain why he supported the same government he now feels is unworthy of his support and that of Canadians. How the NDP leader navigates this minefield, should go a long way in determining if the NDP will finally make that breakthrough to rival the days of David Lewis and Ed Broadbent.

Both Layton and Duceppe are in positions of strength this election, Duceppe will come out of this campaign an even stronger force in Quebec than he enters. Simply by picking up more seats at the expense of the Liberals, he entrenches his spot in both Ottawa and Quebec as a force to be reckoned with. Layton on the other hand can increase his hold on his new NDP by picking up seats and perhaps once again wielding some power over an upcoming government. By the time the votes are counted in January, Layton and the NDP may find themselves in the position to punch well above their weight.

For Martin and Harper this election is much more than a campaign for office, it’s a struggle for political survival. It’s hard to see one or the other surviving his position should they not successfully sway the voters to their point of view. One man will win and the other will go home when all is said and done by the end of January.

We will have more time than usual this election to think over the issues, weigh the differences and decide who we shall trust to run this country for the next few years. All that is left to figure is what kind of a leash we wish to put them on for the next Parliament.