Wednesday, October 15, 2008

A little bit more, but not quite enough!



The election of 2008 is in the history books, and after five weeks and a few hundred million dollars Canadians have decided that the status quo is what they want, with a few modifications.
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No need to call the moving vans for 24 Sussex Drive, and there will be no requirement of a new portrait for the Prime Minister’s gallery anytime soon as Wednesday morning brought no new seat arrangements to be made in the House of Commons other than the shifting of the benches a bit.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper managed to add more seats to his side of the House of Commons, but still came up short for the much desired majority rule that he has been seeking over the last number of years.

The Conservatives picked up votes in the outlying areas of Ontario, still finding the ground in Toronto hard to plant seeds in, but hitting a few chords in the suburban riding's surrounding the Metropolitan area. Succes was found as well as in the larger cities of the Southwest and eastern regions of the most populated province in the nation.

The Achilles heel for the Conservatives (outside of the Kingdom of Williams of Newfoundland and Labrador) once again proved to be Quebec, which flirted with the PM in the early stages of the election but ran back into the arms of Gilles Duceppe’s call for solidarity in the end.
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Along the way, the Liberals found one of the few rays of hope in their miserable campaign in their former stronghold, which returned and welcomed new Liberals into some hard fought riding's around Montreal.

There is clearly much work to be done in Liberaldom these days, the Party suffered as serious a setback as they have in recent years, as their share of the vote in once hard fought three way fights dropped precipitously rendering them but an afterthought in far too many locations. Indeed, in many riding's it seemed as if they were competing only to show that Liberal flag, a tattered banner fraying at the edges and in need of an overhaul.

The Liberals once again must find some ground to hold on to in a changing political landscape, returning to the themes and a time of trust that made them the governing party of the past. Seeking to create a new era that will see much in the way of positioning and re-branding, building and re-financing and we suspect keeping as far away as possible from another trip to the polls for the foreseeable future.

While Stephane Dion’s stewardship of the Liberal machine is on shaky ground these days, the beginnings of a revival in their long time base may soon be underway, featuring one of the most famous of last names in Canadian politics.

The results were barely recorded before the early stages of a new era of Trudeaumania were under way as Justin Trudeau claimed the Papineau riding for the Grits, a rather impressive victory considering the lack of help from the leader (perhaps a good thing oui?) and the competitive instincts of the Bloc who were quite dedicated to the goal of keeping the riding as their own, in the end candidate Trudeau prevailed and a whole new era of Liberal speculation is set to begin anew.

Declarations that he is the one to save the Liberals are a tad over the top, he has yet to even take a seat, but clearly he will be part of the much needed review of what the party is and what it needs to be in the future to find some sense of importance to Canadians again.

As Wednesday dawned, Jack Layton was not getting measured for a new suit for his Prime Ministerial portrait, the NDP while improving their seat count only increased their total vote by 1 per cent. At 37 seats they were still well below the Ed Broadbent beach head of the seventies and well by simple math quite a few more away from hosting a majority of the seats in the House.

Yet, Mr. Layton was the first out of the gate in the Press release department declaring it a great day for the NDP and a signal for Mr. Harper to cooperate more with Parliament’s other participants.

Somehow we suspect that Jack won’t be on Stephen’s speed dial for the next few months, while the NDP may wish to be included more in the process of government, the simple fact is that for the time being there is no need for the Conservatives to seek them out, any return to the ballot box in the short term probably won’t change the dynamic much, would send the electorate to the barricades and in fact could send the NDP backwards.
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Best to work the angle of usurping the opposition status from the now once again disorganized Liberals, that is where perhaps the NDP might find their best success in the life of this new minority parliament.

The Green Party increased their voting totals but have yet to claim a seat in Parliament, high profile candidates Elizabeth May and Adrianne Carr both were defeated quite handily in their respective riding's, and while a number of their candidates made for respectable showings in riding's across the nation, few if any really threatened to change the dynamics of the riding's they campaigned in. While they cherry picked Liberal votes across the nation, the confusing concept of strategic voting that seemed to even befuddle their own supporters never really took off.

As the Greens examine the political landscape after the vote, the first call it seems is a cash call, Elizabeth May no doubt hoping to strike while the faithful still have fond regards suggested that some Green be sent the Green's way, so as to continue to process of keeping the message alive and to pay off their campaign debts accrued through borrowed money (hmm, that might have been an interesting debate topic fiscal responsibilities and such).
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The second goal it seems is to seek out a by election opportunity soon, apparently so transfixed by the electoral process Elizabeth May is quite anxious to get out on a husting anywhere, hopeful as ever to take a seat in the House of Commons.
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In Quebec, Gilles Duceppe managed to issue the always emotional call for the Quebecois to trust their own. By the end of the voting on Tuesday, Duceppe was taking credit for denying the Harper Conservatives of their for a majority ( a sentiment that the Premier of BC described in less effusive ways) and promising to once again stand up for Quebec in the House.
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And indeed the Bloc did stem any growth for the Conservatives, though they were aided by a less than stellar strategy by Harper and Co. in the province. Playing upon the old emotions of Quebec politics, the Bloc maintained their base and once again reduced the national parties to spectators at times in the framing of the election debate in the province.

Yet it probably is in that Bloc vote that the Prime Minister may find the best option to governing as if he had picked up those additional 12 votes. While he won’t be able to consider or implement any programs that would steer Quebec further along the path of separation, he could frame legislation on key issues that will find resonance with Bloc members.

Students of history will remember that once upon a time in the sixties it was Real Caouette and his Social Credit movement that found itself as a much desired date and occasional tormentor of the governing party during the Parliaments of those minority days (much to the dismay of the Diefenbaker Conservatives of the day).
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While a much different animal than that particular political era, the Bloc still will find that they will most likely be the popular phone partner, ironically this time of the heirs of Diefenbaker Conservatives over the course of this new Parliament.
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For the Prime Minister, while denied a majority, the results are about as good as he might have hoped for. He’s found resonance in many portions of the nation, picked up seats in many riding's and saw many of his candidates increase in the popular vote in riding's that they haven’t had particular success with over the years.

Most importantly his main opposition will find itself in disarray for the short term, allowing him to have some breathing time to put together his next Parliamentary agenda.

However, he will have the check and balance of a minority government, which will be watchful for his every move, his every bill and for any change in the Canadian standard. If nothing else, this may be one of the more accountable of sessions of Canadian parliaments.

This minority government continuum seems to be the new template of the Canadian federation, though judging by the historic low totals of the vote (less than 60 per cent for the first time ever) the Canadian population would seem to not want to go to the polls as often as they have been asked over the last few years.

And that might be the key thing for all politicians to digest from the results of the election, the more frequently they come to us for our vote, the more it seems that we tire of them and the process. Perhaps it would be best for all if they just find a way to get along and provide leadership on a more long lasting basis.

That if nothing else may make this minority government a more productive and extended session than most and while he may not be governing with a majority, Mr. Harper’s time in office may indeed last as long as if he had achieved one.

What remains to be seen is, having been denied at what many say was his best chance for electoral success, if he will still be leading the Conservatives when they next seek a majority government.

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