Low fishery expectations could make for another economic hit for Rupert this summer

The predictions being made these days, are for the worst salmon season in fifty years for British Columbia. A situation so dire, that the Suzuki Foundation has "yellow card listed" many of BC's major salmon rivers, describing such legendary rivers as the Fraser and Skeena as facing serious challenges.

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The Skeena, long a major contributor to the local economy normally receives some 3 to 5 million returning fish in a normal cycle, this year it is expected to see but 1.5 million. A serious reduction in stocks that will have much of a spillover effect in Prince Rupert.

It's worrisome resource situation, which if combined with the increasing cost of fuel, has Joy Thorkelson of the UFAWU-CAW suggesting to the Vancouver papers that a portion of the southern fleet, some 650 strong may just stay tied up down south, rather than make the journey north this year to chase dwindling numbers.

The significant reduction in the returning fish could have a dramatic impact on the economy this summer in Prince Rupert as local fishermen, and shoreworkers find that their hours won’t be the same, nor their pay. The lack of work will have a huge impact on their EI entitlements and will make for yet another worrisome fall and winter season for those who have been struggling to get by for a number of years now.

For local businesses which find that summer influx of out of town commercial fishermen helpful to their bottom line, it could be a lean summer as well. Grocery stores, supply stores, machine shops and fueling stations may see a rather sharp reduction in customers as the latest crisis in the salmon fishery plays out over the summer.

Both Vancouver papers have provided some background on the evolving situation, one where raw data meets human emotions in a very visible way.

B.C. headed for worst salmon run in 50 years, officials say
Ethan Baron
The Province
Tuesday, June 17, 2008

B.C.'s headed for the worst salmon catch in 50 years, and little or no local sockeye will be available in shops and restaurants, federal fisheries officials said yesterday.

"You are going to see limited opportunity to buy salmon," said Brian Riddell, regional head of salmon-stock assessment for the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.

The entire B.C. sockeye fishery may be shut down this year, and the Fraser sockeye run is expected to be closed to commercial fishing, Riddell said.

Department forecasters predict 2.9 million sockeye will return to the Fraser. The run can hit 15 million fish, but 2008 is the lowest of a four-year cycle, compounded by the effects of a catastrophic food deficit in 2005.

The Skeena River sockeye run is forecast at 1.5 million, compared with the usual three-to-five million fish.

It's likely that only aboriginals will be permitted to take Fraser sockeye, Riddell said.

If runs are so low that only enough fish return to meet stock-conservation targets, even natives could be shut out, he said.

Natives are entitled to catch salmon for food and for social and ceremonial purposes. They are first in line once conservation targets are met.

This season could bring the worst salmon returns ever, said Ernie Crey, adviser to the Sto:lo tribal council.

Half of B.C.'s native population will lose their principal source of protein if native fisheries are shut, Crey said.

"What do they do to replace it? The answers are not immediately evident," he said, adding that many of the 94 communities that rely on salmon are impoverished.

In 2005, warm ocean conditions reduced food supply for salmon and attracted more predators.
"We've never seen a year of poor [salmon] marine survival like we did in 2005," Riddell said. "It was an extraordinary event."

Only 1.3 per cent of Chilko Lake sockeye smolts born in 2005 survived, compared to a long-term average of nine to 10 per cent, Riddell said.

The smolts born into those conditions are the ones to return this summer.

But ocean temperature cooled in subsequent years, which bodes well for future salmon survival, he said.

"This is a temporary problem. There's no reason to think that we won't see better years in the future," Riddell said.

To ensure long-term health of salmon stocks, fisheries must put more resources into protecting rivers and spawning grounds, as logging, mining and similar activities can cause siltation and heating, reducing spawning success, said Jeffery Young, a biologist with the David Suzuki Foundation.

Low salmon stocks prompt 'yellow' listing
Nicole Tomlinson
Vancouver Sun
Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Based on predictions that salmon returns to B.C. rivers this fishing season may be the lowest in 50 years, the David Suzuki Foundation has labelled Pacific salmon as a "cautionary" seafood.
The foundation and others contributed their expertise to a report by SeaChoice, an organization that rates seafood options based on sustainability.

SeaChoice concluded there are concerns about the sustainability of Pacific salmon.
Using a "traffic light system" to rank seafood options, it listed Pacific salmon as yellow this year. Consumers are advised to eat yellow-listed seafood sparingly and to learn more about the source of the fish.

The Suzuki Foundation said Nass River sockeye are a better choice this year than yellow-listed runs such as Fraser and Skeena sockeye, which face "serious challenges this year."
Fisheries and Oceans Canada said the rating conforms with its own view.

"I think the assessment is quite accurate for 2008," said Brian Riddell, division head for salmon stock assessment.

The reason, he said, is that ocean conditions -- such as food supply, temperature and predation -- are fluctuating more than ever before.

These influences are having more of impact on the province's southern coastal region, where no significant commercial salmon fishing is expected to take place this year, according to Joy Thorkelson of the United Fishermen And Allied Workers' Union.

South coast fisherman may not get their usual share of north coast salmon, either.

Thorkelson said many of the 650 south-coast fishermen licensed to catch northern fish normally commute up the coast. But with a relatively low catch projection there and the rising price of fuel, at least some of them will stay home this year.