Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Stephane stumbles out of the gate


The first test of fire for the new Liberal leader Stephane Dion has provided for a rather disappointing result for the party machine, three disappointing results as a matter of fact.

Dion faced the electorate for the first time since his ascension to the Liberal throne late last year, examining the three by elections in his home province of Quebec and three separate results that have sent a bit of a shock wave through Liberal circles across the country.
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While they make the best out of a bad situation by declaring that Canada was the winner on Monday, the party which became used to sitting on the governing side must be getting a little anxious about a chance to return to the entitled side of the Houseof Commons any time soon.

Liberals were shut out in all three by elections on Monday, losing ground to the Conservatives, the Bloc and even the NDP. By elections traditionally provide misery for the governing party, as voters tend to send the government a message by sending opposition members off to Ottawa to keep them honest. In this case it was the Liberal party taken to the wood shed, with a message that will be studied like oracles at the Liberal HQ, the high Priests of Liberalism looking for some sense of what must come next to rebuild the damaged Liberal brand.

Of most concern to the nation’s once longest running government organization was the loss of Outremont, perhaps the safest Liberal seat ever created. It now sits temporarily in the hands of Jack Layton’s happy band of warriors, who were making quick hay out of their harvest of souls in West Montreal. Carried away in the euphoria of their win, suddenly they think that Quebec is now ready for the agenda of the left that they have long said that province was clamoring for.
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Outremont however, will most likely prove to be an aberration for the NDP, a temporary stint in the sun while backroom Liberals work in the shadows to make sure that it returns to the fold as soon as possible. This will not be good for Mr. Dion, as he may find that in order for the Liberal ship to sail again in Quebec, the captain may need to walk the plank.

Equally happy from the developments in Montreal were the Conservatives, while they continue to have their troubles in the urban areas of the nation, the NDP taking of Outremont in itself is probably a bigger victory for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives than their win of Roberval—Lac-St. Jean outright. Having Dion lose the one seat that the Liberals have counted on since the early 1900’s, sets the Liberals back significantly in any thoughts of joining with the Bloc, in bringing down Harper’s minority government in the short term. If they couldn’t stop the bleeding in Outremont they must surely be wondering what hope is there for the rest of Quebec. .
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They’re talking bravely at the Liberal offices, Dion has taken full responsibility for the triple loss and vows to do a better job. Still, rumblings now of a new rift in the Liberal party will soon become louder and louder. The party which once was loathe to allow infighting to make it outside of caucus, could very well revisit the days of Chrétien and Martin. As unfinished business from the last convention may soon find new life, with new champions of new directions who will jockey to fill in the sudden void.

In fact in the days leading up to the by elections, the word was leaked out that former leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff was working almost as hard to scupper the campaign as Dion was to winning it. It’s a claim that many Liberals proclaimed as blatant trouble making from outside forces but still is one that is resonating loudly in Ottawa and beyond.

Still, it may not be too long before the leadership ambitions stir anew and Ignatieff, Ray and who knows how many others may yet get their second chance to take the reins and begin to produce those flashy leadership videos that will showcase their abilities to lead the Liberals to the Promised Land.

Taking a cue from great leaders like this for instance ready to claim the throne:




For now they say it’s one big happy Liberal family, who despite the setbacks of Monday still has faith in Stephane Dion. But he may wish to keep in mind, that sharks are most dangerous when there is blood in the water, which is when they tend to come to the surface, Mr. Dion had best keep an eye on the water for fins.

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