Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Is General Hillier set for the High jump?


When February rolls around in 2008, one person apparently soon to be left off of the Prime Ministers Valentines list will be the Chief of Defence staff, General Rick Hillier.

CTV News is reporting today that the Conservative government of Stephen Harper is making plans to replace the General when his three year term as Chief of Defence comes up for renewal in February.

It’s a move that may prove to be risky for the Prime Minister, replacing a popular general while the country is involved in a rather determined military action in Afghanistan. While Canadians may be split about the mission, most are inclined to offer up their support for the actual troops on the ground, mostly the result of the work of Hillier to make sure that the word gets out about what Canada is doing in Afghanistan.

For the bulk of his time as Chief of Defence, Hillier has if nothing else punched home the message of reminding Canadians about their sons and daughters in harms way. His language has been blunt, at times profane and mostly straight ahead factual, not the kind of talk that politicians are known for.

While critics find him to be brash and bombastic, there certainly can be no doubt that he has as made one of his main missions to ensure that the troops tasked to Afghanistan are provided with the proper equipment to do the job. He has also played a major role in increasing the profile of the Armed Forces while involved in active combat.

Perhaps providing a message that isn’t sitting well with a government that seems inclined to try and massage the message to the populace. Preferring not to highlight the dangers, all the while watching the polling numbers that show Canadians growing nervous about Canada's expanding commitment to that part of the world.

CTV suggests that one of the reasons that the Conservatives are planning on replacing him, is that he “outshone" his political masters and "undermined" the former Minister of Defence Gordon O’Connor. Two tasks which it seems would not exactly be very challenging to complete

Should the Conservatives follow through on the plan to replace the General, the most likely candidate is said to be Lt.-Gen. Walter Natynczyk, tapped as the front runner based mainly due to the fact that the Prime Minister likes him.

That's not exactly the best way to select the most important post in Canada’s military while engaged in a near state of war. And while probably not fair to the capabilities of Lt.-Gen. Natynczyk, it most likely wouldn't leave Canadians with a great sense of confidence in the Governments handling of an important and vital department. It would also suggest a process that seems to run counter to what the Conservatives say they are all about, and would remind Canadians that the Conservatives were critical of similar styles of management back in the “bad old Liberal days".

While General Hillier has no doubt ruffled more than a few feathers over his term in office (not necessarily a bad thing by the way), he has been tasked with a rather hard job with a severely depleted Armed Forces cupboard. It has only been in the recent years that the military has been placed back on the top of the spending lists in Ottawa. A situation which the Conservatives deserve some credit for, having reversed the years and years of cutbacks and corner cutting favoured by the Liberals.

All that good karma though could go out the window, if a popular General is given his walking papers because the politicians didn’t like him.

We suspect that should the General’s departure come to pass, the Conservatives will suffer some serious fall out from their decisions. While they may be acting as though they have a majority government, decisions like the rumoured replacement of a popular military leader could come back to haunt them in a very telling way.

Canadian’s generally don’t pay much attention to military matters in the country, they are aware of the Afghanistan force that is in play and have serious questions for their government about its long term plan in that country and whether all that the troops need has been provided.

It won’t be viewed as a good sign if the Government replaces the general who seems to have the highest respect of his troops (and a large chunk of the population as well). The Conservatives have used the military as a talking point for the bulk of their term in office so far, whether it’s through the Afghanistan mission or for the numerous procurement programs that they have rolled out since taking office.

The constant in each one has been the Chief of Defence Staff, who it would seem, has put a few noses out of joint in Ottawa. The Conservatives will have to build a case against the General based on poor managerial skills or dissension in the rank and file. Replacing him because he gets on the nerves of the political class probably will only make the man a larger folk hero than he’s become. Surely there are other tasks for the Prime Minister to busy himself with, than settling scores with a military leader.

It will be with interest that Canadians watch to see if the Conservatives follow through on the rumoured replacement plan, if it comes down to a popularity poll we suspect that the General is going to win as they say; "hands down, walking away".

Both the Globe and Mail website and CTV's webpage on the story have seen a number of letters in reply to the story arrive in short order since the story was first broadcast and published. The large amount of commentary, much of it in favor of the General, should make for an early warning system for stupid political decisions.

The proposed move could very well be the biggest political mis-step so far by “Canada’s New Government”, a dangerous step that very well may render them to be “Canada’s former Government.”

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