Setting the snare?

We’re not sure if the Prime Minister is the hunting or trapping type. Somehow we doubt that he would be caught in a less than flattering picture, quietly sitting in a duck blind, decked out in an Elmer Fudd hat and hi viz vest ready to blast away.

But setting a trap or two, well now, perhaps there may be some old time Hudson’s Bay company blood in the guy most associated with Bay Street and Calgary’s Oil towers.

Later today, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will unveil his agenda for the upcoming session of Parliament, with a prime time presentation of the pomp and ceremony of the Speech from the Throne, which if it were to be one of those movie block busters would be subtitled: The Conservative Way.

In order to achieve the best possible coverage in vote rich central Canada, the presentation will get under way at 6:35 ET, 3:35 PT with the arrival of Governor General Michaëlle Jean, who will summon the MP's to return to work, no doubt fully refreshed from their four month summer vacation.

The Throne Speech of a minority Parliament isn’t so much the blue print of the government’s plans, as it is the Utopian dreams of what a government would like to do, if only that pesky opposition gang would get out of the way.

This Throne speech however, may be one that lays out a few snares or mines, ready to force the hand of the opposition parties.

Without even hearing a word, it’s a safe bet that the NDP will not offer up its support to Mr. Harper's plans and one has to wonder about what the calculations are over at the Bloc offices today, as they try to decide if they should tempt the fates of an election or hunker down in the BQ bunkers for another raucous session.

The NDP is fairly secure in their message, support and leadership at the moment. They are anxious to see if they can capitalize (if a socialist party dares to use such a term) on the current malaise with the Liberals in the larger centers. The same can’t be said for the Bloc,which has seen the Conservatives continue to make inroads in their strongholds and grow stronger with each poll in Quebec.

While the number three and four parties weight their options, what really matters is where Liberal leader Stephane Dion will weigh in on the issue.

For Stephane Dion’s gang, the rifts in his party have seemingly not healed from the Chretien/Martin years, let alone from last years Liberal convention. The release this week of the Chretien memoirs about his time as Prime Minister, should only serve to re-energize the animosity between those two camps putting Dion in a most uncomfortable and unwanted spot.

Even worse for him at the moment was the praise heaped upon him in print by Uncle Jean, who pointed out in his book, that he likes Stephane and preferred that he was the one to take the leadership. It was most likely a heartfelt sentiment, if at the same concerted effort to stick it to the Martinites one more time. But it was not particularly helpful to the concept of uniting a rather fractious party, heading into a possible election.

All of which is music to the ears of Stephen Harper. While the Conservatives have found a wee bit of upward traction in the polls of late, there isn’t enough to guarantee a majority government any time soon. Normally that is a warning bell to avoid going to the polls, but in this case there may be no better time than now.

In effect, with his Throne Speech Harper can govern as though he has a majority. Putting forward a more aggressive agenda designed to form the basis of a Conservative election platform. One which will most likely be sugar coated with tax cuts for the middle class and an agenda (soon to be electoral talking points?) of addressing the concerns of his core group of supporters, all the while taking advantage of an opposition that has more than few problems to deal with internally.

The Globe and Mail suggests that there is no “poison pill” to be put forward with today’s speech, which if correct, could guarantee a minority government until early at least the first few months of 2008 and the budget vote.

Then again, the Liberals may have retrenched by that time and the Bloc found yet another issue to bounce back with, to spark the passions of their supporters of years gone by. Timing is everything in politics, the key is to know when to take your chance with the people.

Today's speech has been called by some as perhaps the defining moment of Stephen Harper's Prime Ministership, his chance to issue a battle cry to his supporters and to dare the opposition to topple his government if they dare.

It will be interesting to hear his plans, watch his maneuvering and most importantly gauge the reaction of the opposition, who are guaranteed to find something to dislike in this speech.

The question is whether they are ready to topple the government, at the risk of giving them a larger mandate six weeks from now?