To Be the King, or the Kingmaker

By this time next week the Federal Liberal Party of Canada will have a new leader, a successor to the iconic history of Laurier and Mackenzie King, Pearson and Trudeau, declaring a new leader who will be hoping like hell that he doesn’t suffer the same fate of a Turner or Martin.

As the final week of politicking wraps up and the Liberals head to their destiny in Montreal, there still is no consensus as to which candidate would make the next great leader of what was once the National Governing Party.

The two front runners still haven’t really captured the lightning in a bottle that screams out that they are The One to lead the party back to power. In fact, there are still as many questions about Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae as there are delegates to the convention. Neither has led a particularly electrifying campaign, Ignatieff dogged by mis-steps along the way considered by many a tire kicker who will be more than happy to return to academic life should his bid fail this weekend. Rae still carries the baggage of past campaigns while working on behalf of his former cause the NDP. From his days as Premier of a recession wracked Ontario (not exactly his fault, but as they say when you’re the captain when the iceberg hits you’re the guy they remember) to his caustic comments about Liberalism while an NDP MP in the House of Commons, the main body of Liberals still view his entry with suspicion.

There are a number of other Liberals along the way who have throw their hat in the ring, for the most part they have become minor players who will find their fifteen minutes of fame come and gone by about 5 pm on Friday night.

An outside lane goes to Gerard Kennedy who left Ontario Politics for the greater stage, his campaign has been a rather quiet affair thus far. Some suggest he's the only candidate to offer change which for a party in renewal is a good thing.

As late as today, he's the only candidate to categorically come out against the Harper initiative of the nation within a nation motion of last week, which at least gives him a talking point at the convention. Tapped by the Royal Liberal finger of Justin Trudeau as the best option, he has been getting a bit of favourable press in the Ontario media, but not much national exposure. He's considered a third or fourth place candidate as the convention opens, but seems to lack any growth potential.

And then there is Stephane Dion, the former Environment Minister who has been running a steady if less flashy campaign, yet if the Liberals were to look for a candidate that at least seems to exemplify some of the better points of their party, he should be getting a fair amount of consideration this weekend.

With his record in Environment he at least tried to walk the walk as they say, if the Liberals are really as apoplectic over Rona Ambrose’s tenure at the ministry as they suggest and dismayed by the Harper government’s direction on that topic then Dion should surely be their candidate. He has a long and well documented list of policies and thoughts on the issue, far more than the rest of the candidate pool in this campaign.

For those Liberals that still believe in the Trudeau vision of a Canada which includes Quebec as part of the federal system, he probably best exemplifies that policy as well. As father of the Chrétien government’s Clarity Act, he was the point man in the province about demanding a fair and legitimate question regarding that provinces intention towards Confederation. He didn’t win himself a great number of fans with the political elites of Quebec, who don’t like it when someone challenges their divine right to unilaterally decide for the people what is best. But in a new era of Federal Politics where all parties seem in a rush to declare Quebec a nation within a nation, it might be worth a listen to hear what Dion has to say about the issue.

He has long counseled against the concept of devolving powers and in effect stared down the blackmailing intentions of the separatist movement. In what is the Holy Grail of Liberalism in Canada, the state of the Unity of the country, Dion has perhaps the clearest vision than the other candidates.

The drawbacks to his candidacy are there as well though, he is from Quebec and the Liberals do seem to be a party that relies on that fountain far too much for political leaders. His command of English is not as strong as it could be, but considering the amount of years that the nation was led by Jean Chrétien’s mangling of the Queen’s English, the Dion syntax is closer to Prince Phillip than Philippe. His 10 years of experience offer up a double edged sword for his candidacy. While experience is always a welcome thing especially in the area of federal governance, he could just as easily get tainted by the sins of the past Chrétien and Martin mis-steps. Though when you consider how under utilized he was by the Martin forces, he could perhaps use that to his advantage, as a bit of distance isn’t always a bad thing.

In a campaign that has been down right divisive at times as the two front runners fixated on how to scupper the other’s campaigns, Dion has stayed on the message of renewal, whether it be the environment or the political process he’s quietly gone about his business traveling from coast to coast to get his message out.

This last week has seen a flurry of information about the candidates making the rounds whether it’s the Times Colonist waxing poetically about Bob Rae’s conversion to the cause, to Ignatieff exhaling as he received a gift from Stephan Harper over the unity file, the scenario has been set for the final week of the campaign. The two perceived front runners continue to jockey for position. Yet perhaps the best endorsement of any candidate came from long time political observer Lawrence Martin who seemed to capture the Dion candidacy so completely, that they posted his article onto the candidate’s website.

When you finish the Martin article you have to wonder if the two front runners really reflect what the Liberal party really believes in, that is of course if the Liberal party could recognize that anymore to begin with.

If they want to have a refresher course, we offer up this link (CKNW Audio Vault, Friday November 24, 10-11 am) to the Bill Good show of last week. Stephane Dion appeared on that program for an hour, answering questions and explaining his beliefs. It might be worth a listen for the delegates as they head to Montreal, a reminder of their core values and a reflection of the spectrum that they once inhabited.

If they’re looking for the Liberal at the Liberal convention this weekend, they need not go too much further down the list than to Dion’s name. The more they look, the more they may like what they see and hear and that will be of concern to Rae and Ignatieff. It may be too late for Dion to mount a challenge to the two front runners, but if enough of the other candidates come to his campaign it could make for a most interesting weekend in Montreal.

By the time they count the final ballots Dion will be in a pretty good place, he may have enough votes to take a late ballot victory or, he’ll be in a position to put one of the other two over the top. He may be the King or he may be the King maker, either way he stands to be poised to return to the inner circles of power in the Liberal party. If nothing else the Liberals will have somebody who understands what the name stands for, something that could be of value as they try to explain why Canadians should come back to the Big Red Machine.

As Martin said in his blurb, Dion is frequently under rated, the Rae and Ignatieff camps may wish to make note of that, if someone is going to come up from the middle it’s the candidate with the most political experience of the bunch. The delegates should remember that sometimes the best candidate for the job, isn’t necessarily the one that has been at the top of the list. Sometimes you have to look a little deeper into the resume pile before you make your decision.

In what is shaping up to be a very close and dramatic campaign, the last act of the melodrama may go to the most under rated person on the stage, under rated, but perhaps the most deserving of the bunch.