Monday, March 26, 2007

Mario Dumont: Flash in the pan or Political fixture?




Autonomy, it is the favourite word in the lexicon of Mario Dumont, an eight letter word that in Quebec, apparently means one thing to one person and something rather different to another.

Not as garish as the words Independentiste or Sovereigntist, which were the words of choice for the Parti Quebecois, but rather a kinder, gentler word that won’t scare the nice folks west of the Ottawa River and due south and east of the New Brunswick border.

Mario Dumont, is the flavour of politics in Quebec today, his Action Democratique Party came up the middle as they say, to slice a fair amount of support from the more hard line platform of the Parti Quebecois and totally decimate a fair swath of Liberal support in all but the safest of Liberal ridings.

Dumont’s star began to rise in the last Quebec election, his rather young movement gaining but five seats, but thrusting him into the spotlight in the province offering up a more palatable platform to the middle class and young Quebec voters, turned off by the ancient rites and arguments of the established Liberals and PQ.

Monday night five, became 41 (at last count) a rather remarkable surge of support and effectively changing the landscape and dynamic of Quebec politics for the short term, leaving Jean Charest clinging to power in a minority government situation with little territory in which to mine for further support.

Dumont’s ADQ found success in almost all corners of the province, they took seats in the urban ridings in Quebec City and Montreal, as well as in both suburban and rural areas, as the normally polarized voting patterns of PQ and Liberals broke down, sending voters to choose the third option, one which perhaps they knew very little about, but one that provided that always desired opportunity to send a message.

The Premier, Jean Charest barely claimed his own seat in Sherbrooke, having fought a nerve wracking battle all night with his PQ competitor, who briefly believed that he had slayed a dragon, only to see Charest rebound enough to reclaim his own seat, but just barely.

His political near death experience (and many say he's now a dead man walking), is indicative of the trouble his party had across the province with only the relatively federalist ridings in West Montreal and the Outaouais (Western Quebec) giving him any sense of security. Everywhere else, it was a Wild West shoot out between three sides, with the ADQ normally finishing atop the pile in most cases.

While the Liberals featured the most prevalent of the long faces on Monday, some of that stage was put aside for members of the Parti Quebecois, led by Andre Boisclair. His party could not capitalize on a struggling and unpopular government’s misery, as past sins of the PQ, tied to a rather stubborn determination to once again subject Quebec to a sovereignty referendum seemed to put his party out to pasture for this election. Relegated to a close but third status in the electoral tallies with five less seats than the ADQ's 41, the PQ was faced with its lowest popular vote in almost forty years at 28%, while the ADQ attracted 31 % with the Liberal's clinging to 33% of the love.



The talking heads on the night were proclaiming that the results Monday would give the province a break from any talk of referendums for the time being, perhaps what the Quebec voter really wanted after all.

Yet with Dumont, no one really is sure where the path will lead. He talks frequently of autonomy, suggests that he is in step with the current thoughts of the Prime Minister Stephen Harper, but how far that autonomy goes never really gets fleshed out.

With opposition status, Dumont’s image will rise and with more attention to his policies and political direction. How he handles his new found power and prestige and how fast he can bring along a rather large group of relative newcomers to politics will tell us all what he’s all about.

So far he’s been rather a closed book, we get snippets and teases of where he has come from and where he may wish to go, but all of it was tempered with the realization that a party with no more than five members of the legislature, wasn’t going to have much of an effect at the end of the day.

Now, with over 40 members and status as the official opposition his message will get a much more serious hearing. Subject to the always investigative Quebec press, which shows no mercy and suffers neither fools nor political mis-steps.

Perhaps now we can learn more about what it is that Dumont and ADQ believe in, where they envisage the province (and by design that country it currently rests in Canada) goes under their direction and perhaps even just what that word autonomy really means and how far it really goes.

How he works his new found fame will go a long way in telling us if Quebec has indeed had a major shift in the way politics works in the province.

A good number of Quebec voters have parked their loyalties and hopes with the young ADQ leader; how he tackles his upcoming challenges will surely tell us if he’s going to be a long term possibility or like past ghosts of their day, just a comet in the Quebec political skies destined to burn bright for a short period of time before going dark.

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