When the tar doesn't stick!

So far the demonization of Stephen Harper hasn’t taken hold. Try as the Liberals may, the vision of the bogeyman just isn’t leaping off the pages and screens of the nation. In fact, much to the chagrin of Liberal organizers the Conservative leader is coming off as a cool customer, issue driven and hardly ruffled at all from the early blitz by the Liberal ad squad. Harper’s public appearances have featured a comfortable vision, a guy not afraid to be self-deprecating while at the same time offering some definite alternatives to the same old, same old of Ottawa.

As week one of the campaign progresses Harper has scored some serious points in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, two areas that the Liberals must have success in to secure a majority government. In Ontario he has been helped by the fumbling of the recently elected McGuinty Liberal government, Liberals who campaigned provincially on no new taxes, and promptly raised them upon taking office. While they may argue that the increase is due to the inherited mess of the Harris/Eves era, a promise broken is one that gets marked down. Paul Martin now has that baggage to carry as he promises to fund his programs without a tax increase, the voter is already mumbling.

The other helpful move has come from Jack Layton, who Wednesday revealed a comprehensive platform of ideas in Toronto, which made no bones about taking millions of dollars in taxes to put in place. While your average NDP supporter would never vote for Harper, those that are on the fence may start to wonder just how far Layton may go to raise his funds. As has been seen this week in Ontario, taxes are a hot button issue, all of a sudden Harper is on the right side of the agenda, and it’s all about timing.

Down East he’s also getting a pleasant surprise, his appearances are finding attentive crowds who may have been suspicious of him earlier but now are taking the time to listen, and that's something the Conservatives must feel good about. Harper offered a peace offering to the Atlantic region Wednesday, with his promise to turn over royalties from offshore oil and gas back to the provinces. Reminding the Atlantic voter that at the moment their “friends” the Liberals, claw back that money generated reducing the transfer payments accordingly. From Harper’s point of view Newfoundland and Nova Scotia should be equal to Alberta which does not suffer the same indignity. As Harper put it in terms everyone would rally around, “If the federal government did the same thing to Alberta’s oil revenue, Alberta would be a have not province!”

Suddenly there is a shift here, the Liberals who have been pouring millions of dollars into the East Coast over the years in make work projects and such look a tad greedy. How are they helping the East coast to achieve its goals and aspirations when they’re taking the very money being generated by industry there? It’s not a new story, but in the light of an election campaign it makes a very powerful visual. A much better delivered version of his earlier speeches about how the Atlantic Provinces suffer a culture of defeat, by providing an example as to how they’ve been held back, the voter can begin to ponder what may be to come.

Things are going so well for the Tories down east that John Crosbie is testing the waters for a return to Parliament, suddenly those dire warnings from Joe Clark are appearing to be more personal than pragmatic. Harper has also found allies to the cause in Bernard Lord and Pat Binns, two premiers who have come out and helped share the message. Instead of lynching parties down east Harper is finding that some of the folks are starting to hear his message, a development that will not be good for the oligarchy that the Liberals were hoping to build there.

With all four Atlantic premiers elected as Conservatives, it never was particularly clear to me how everyone expected a Liberal landslide. While economic self interest is always a motivating factor in any election and the Liberals have been kind to say the least, there is obviously a core belief in Conservative policies in the region. Perhaps that is why the Liberals were in such a frantic state to paint the Conservative leader as a far right zealot, hoping to keep the soft Tories for their own voters list.

However, as Harper tours the area and meets the voters face to face without a Liberal filter; his message is going to find some resonance with the population. Unless Harper reveals a dark side and unveils a position paper calling for the abolition of the Atlantic Provinces and a forced expulsion, he may find that there is a need to return more frequently as Election Day nears.

The first few polls have not been kind to the Conservatives, but a few more announcements like the gas royalty one, should give his image and his party’s chances a strong bump. Political pundits Chantal Hebert and Andrew Coyne have both noticed the favourable reception thus far. If the media is reporting on Harper's postitives, then the Liberal approach is off target. And that makes for a situation that will provide some sleepless nights in the Liberal war room.