Gordon Campbell's election countdown

Perhaps when he set forward the legislation for a fixed date for elections, things were rosier for Gordon Campbell. He had completely annihilated the ruling NDP party, finding 76 fellow converts to the cause beside him, against two lonely lamp holders for socialism. His agenda for change while not overwhelmingly accepted had at least been considered by many voters, as possibly a necessary change of direction from the recent ministrations of the Clark and Harcourt years.

But as the weeks, turned to months, into years his solid grip on the seat count seems to have loosened significantly. In one year less a day, BC will go to the polls and if things then are as they are today then Gordon Campbell may very well suffer a horrendous reversal of fortune. A situation which would surely cost him his leadership and take a number of high profile Liberals out with the tide.

It seems hard to believe that less than four short years after the resounding repudiation of the Clark agenda, that the NDP might very well form a minority or even possibly a majority government but it is so. The Liberal backlash is so vociferous that it can’t be ignored or dismissed as just governmental weariness. Signs of a revitalized Labour movement regaining its footing ready to do battle, a never ending health care crisis, the scent of scandal and improper behaviour in Victoria and a horrible economic performance outside of the Lower Mainland have the makings for a long, long night in 364 days.

Carole James the leader of the provincial NDP, has yet to make a policy statement of substance for her party. She has shared little in the way of her plans for the province and has such a low profile that you could sit beside her on Skytrain and not have a clue who she was. Yet a recent poll shows that BC residents are more than willing to give her and the NDP another chance to govern, an amazing reversal of fortune by any stretch of the imagination.

Perhaps it’s just the inevitable correction of a heavily lopsided vote tally of three years ago; surely no one expected the Liberals would hold all 76 seats as their own after four years of governance. But then no one would certainly anticipate the complete collapse of the Liberal vote, a collapse that many feel could come to pass should the Liberals continue along their self destructive path. And which may land at the feet of the Premier who continues to trend downward in monthly polls.

Maybe the uncertainty over Campbell’s stewardship is just the usual volatile swing in BC politics, a place where rational thought sometimes seems to get put aside with the snowboards, golf clubs and Kokanee beer.

There of course is still much time between now and our date with destiny, the Liberals of course control the finances and can manufacture a good news budget much along the lines of their federal namesakes. Spreading good cheer to every corner of the province before we reach May 17, 2005. Should they continue to lag behind the NDP in some key ridings and wallow in the low polls throughout the province, don’t be surprised to see your MLA with cheques in hand and a must do project underway soon.

Stirling Faux ran an unscientific poll on his radio program Monday on CKNW. And the PR serfs at Campbell central couldn’t help but hear the frustration and in many cases anger at their man. You can listen in to the bewildered voter by checking out the audio vault between 12:30 and 1:30 on CKNW. While many callers expressed concern at the idea of returning the NDP to the money tree, they feel that the Liberal government is too out of touch with its populace and too arrogant at the moment to do an adequate job. Those that couldn’t fathom voting NDP ever again, said they would park their vote with the Unity Party and Chris Delaney, a man who leads a party with even less cache with the populace than the NDP. For the Greens and Adriane Carr, the news is not good either, their heady days of possibly usurping the NDP vote now a distant memory, those who may have chosen to rent their vote there have exercised their right to return it to the NDP, only the hard core environmentalists seem willing to stay with the Greens as the months countdown to election day.

364 days to turn it around, the Liberals must begin the process now, for like a huge ship in the ocean coming to shore, momentum can carry it quite a ways, without some nudging now the probability of docking safely in 2005 gets less and less. What remains to be seen is whether Captain Campbell is still at the helm when they enter the harbour. He’ll either be Commander and Master of his fleet, or relieved of his duties. Any more freefalls in polling and mutiny will not be too far off the political radar, all of a sudden 364 days doesn’t seem so far away.