The Numbers that are there and those that are not!

We most likely are on the eve of an election call, but this is unlike any other election call in recent history. Normally the government of the day goes to the polls fully convinced that they are the flavour of the day, they print the signs, nominate the candidates and purchase their advertising time. The campaign unfolds and providing no major scandal unfolds as they knock on the doors, they generally get elected. If they don’t think they’ll be elected, they wait as long as humanly possible before suffering the wrath of the voter.

The government of Paul Martin has been following the script fairly closely, we’ve seen a number of multi million dollar programs announced in those ridings where they might need a nudge. A 30 million dollar Health centre for Winnipeg, 280 million to clean up the tar ponds of Sydney and rejuvenate Halifax harbour, funding for subways in the larger cities, 262 million for highways in Quebec, 35 million in joint financing for a new stadium for Toronto, redeveloping the waterfront in that same city to the tune of 125 million, the flow of dollars continues as though the faucet is jammed full open. Its the grand old days of open vault politics.

Yet despite this orgy of spending, the pollsters seem perplexed, the governing party cannot pull its magic number above the 40% range and that has the back bench and newly minted nominees just a little bit worried.

The Compas poll of Friday is the latest in bad tea leaves for the governing Liberals, it has the Paul Martin team at only 39% of the dedicated vote, and the Conservatives hold 31%, the NDP 17% and the Bloc Quebecois 11%. The Ipsos-Reid poll of Friday suggests even worse numbers with the Liberals at only 35%. Not much return for the Liberal investment thus far.

The new team in the PMO must be puzzled; they believed that they had done all the right things. High profile candidates parachuted into key ridings across the country, how dare these local riding associations question their wisdom. Surely they can’t argue that Ujjal Dosanjh, would not make a fine Liberal, despite his flirtation with socialism in the nineties could he not find the light. This hand picked cast assembled such as: David Emerson, Glen Murray, Ken Dryden and Dave Haggard all would make fine Liberals if only the people will give them a chance. Many other ridings have been chosen to help get the right kind of people into office, how ungrateful of them to not realize that the local riding people don’t know what’s best for their own ridings. The Democratic deficit, which was to be addressed by this government, seems to grow larger rather than being reduced. If appointing nominees as though by fiat is promoting Democracy then we all need refresher courses, the people are not so much as speaking out as being spoken too, and in harsh tones at that.

As Martin’s decision day dawns, the grand plan seems somehow a little tarnished. The great vision of the October convention long since fading from view, the flowery rhetoric the grand dreams of that impressive convention speech somehow no longer there for us to consider. Instead we see the arrogance of the Liberals of old, the same old values that may have carried them to victory in the past, but seemed somewhat unseemly back with a vengeance. The all inclusive vision expressed to the gathered faithful that October night, a party that called on the lessons of Pearson, Trudeau, Turner and even Chretien now a muddled collection of bromides. Perhaps what the Liberals need right now is little more Bono! His speech lifted Liberals and Canadians to look to higher pursuits, above the partisan politics and backroom deals. He urged us to help save the world, not our bacon.

Even the moves designed to suggest a change in business have not worked out according to plan. The Adscam scandal with its follow up hearing only shocked and dismayed the average Canadian. It confirmed for one and all, that accountability is apparently a lost cause in the Ottawa power corridors. The shutting down of the committee after conveniently finding a couple of guys to hang the can onto only gives Canadians cause to wonder just how bad that scandal could be. Such was the haste to wrap it up and head to an election. It leaves on to wonder if things are only going to get worse under a judicial review scheduled to start in September. The perception of a rotten core group is a hard one to counter, it may not have been his government at the time, but Martin found himself at the helm when the storm hit, revelation after revelation chipping away at his accumulated goodwill. A godsend for the opposition Conservatives, who just sat back and grilled the witnesses, expressing shock with each memo unearthed. For a group that made patronage a way of life in the eighties, to be able to take the high moral ground must have been like winning a lottery.

So rattled have the Conservatives made the Martinites that even before a campaign is launched they have rushed out attack ads, demonizing the Harper forces. Urging us to look into the record for hidden agendas, suggesting that to place Harper into power is akin to sacrificing all we hold dear. So far the tactic seems to be stumbling, 8% separates Martin from Harper, hardly the margin one would expect when battling between evil and good.

When Paul Martin took over the party there was a sense of expectation in the public, long had we heard that he had plans, visions and grand ideals in place to reclaim our place in the world’s imagination. Somewhere along the way they all got shelved, meddled with or in some cases discarded completely. Instead we are left with a tired government, dressed up in new clothing with a few new faces to suggest change. But as the numbers come in the reviews aren’t kind, a majority government seems unlikely at the moment, a minority Liberal one the likely outcome. Not necessarily a bad thing for Canada, but certainly not at all what the Martin people had anticipated when they took to the stage in October.

Sunday a decision beckons, the time for posturing will come to an end. Ideas, vision and solid planning once the hallmark of Paul Martin will need to be re-introduced. If Canadians don’t feel that they truly count on the Martin agenda, they may just turn the keys to 24 Sussex over to the Harper family. A situation that would make Paul Martin’s plan to remake the Liberal Party suffer a serious if not fatal setback. A lot rides on his call; let’s hope the gravity of the day doesn’t result in any more waffling. The longer they wait now, the angrier the populace will get, replacing dithering with determination may be the only strategy left to salvage a successful result.