Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Mandate received, but with an opposition with teeth!

The cake walk reign of Gordon Campbell came to an end on Tuesday night, while the BC Liberal leader received his second mandate as leader of the government, the days of having the BC Legislature mostly to himself are long gone.

With a surprising result, the NDP under Carole James collected 33 seats, 31 more than they had at dissolution. Many (including myself) had expected the NDP to pick up around 20 seats in this election as they rebuilt their party from the ashes of the Glen Clark/Ujjal Dosanjh years.

Instead, a backlash against the harder lines of the BC Libs sent 33 NDPers' off to fight the good fight in Victoria. Campaigning to be an opposition party seems to have paid off for the NDP as they will at least make the Liberals more accountable in their next four years. Gone now are the days of a lonely Joy McPhail and Jenny Kwan holding down the fort for socialism against the forces of unfettered capitalism. The results tonight make a wonderful retirement gift for McPhail who did a remarkable job of holding the NDP together in its darkest hours, in the last four years she was the lone voice for social issues in a legislature that refused to even offer her party official status, the results of the vote today are vindication for her and Kwan's hard work and the result of McPhails steady leadership. She can take her leave now, secure in the knowledge that she put the blocks in place for the NDP rebirth this night.

Still, a thirteen seat majority isn't exactly something to be sneezed at. Gordon Campbell will still be the premier, the majority is a workable one, which will allow him to still enact legislation, though perhaps with a more humane touch from here on in. The Liberals knew they were going to lose seats in this election and found that many of the rural areas had not bought into their programs sending the incumbents off to find other work.

Two of the "heartland" battleground cities basically told the tale of this election, both Kamloops and Prince George returned Liberals to office and those two ridings pretty well sent the Liberals back into power as they stayed the course with the Liberal agenda.

Northern ridings seemed to turn their backs on the Liberal candidates as the NDP picked up all the seats west of the Prince George ridings, starting their march at Bulkley Valley and trekking across the landscape taking everything up for grabs to the Pacific Ocean. This despite some serious money infusions to three of the ridings prior to the election. With a strong first nations presence and heavy union votes the NDP recaptured ridings that once were theirs in their halcyon days.

The Greens once again failed to win a seat, the 9% of the vote that the Greens picked up could have added a few more seats to the NDP total. Adriane Carr leader of the Green did not pick up her own seat and one wonders whether she will remain as leader of what seems to be a perpetual spoiler party now.

The win for the Liberals will be a warning shot for future policy ideas. The confrontational and mean spirited atmosphere of the early years of the Campbell Liberals will be long gone now. With an opposition party with numbers ready to take to the Legislature, the Campbell gov't will have to rethink it's policies regarding health and education. The vote today was a rebuke of much of the Campbell platform over the last four years and a return of the ideological split that has ruled this province for so many years now.

The Liberals won the majority of the seats, but did not win a majority of the popular vote as the NDP/Green vote combined would be close if not above 50% compared to the Liberals 44%. Interestingly enough, the STV proposal did not meet the required level of acceptance leaving it's fate unknown. But one wonders how the Legislature might have looked with an STV style of ballot on this election day.

While the numbers of positive STV replies were higher than expected, it was very much a proposition that never seemed to gain widespread support or acceptance. No one seemed to actually campaign on its behalf, both the major parties kept a low profile when asked about it and neither seemed to be in any hurry to adopt the thing.

For today though its first past the post and that mudder was named Campbell. But James was coming up fast on the inside track and it should be an interesting time in BC as a rejuvenated NDP prepares to do battle with the Liberals. A strong opposition may be just as good as actual governing for the NDP and its supporters, they have four years to keep the Liberals on their toes refine their policies and bury some of the lingering doubts about their ability to govern.

I will admit I was a bit surprised at he success of Ms. James and her party, I felt they had not run a particularly effective campaign against a gov't that had many soft spots. The results tonight show that the voters were far more in touch with her style and message than I thought they were. Or perhaps it was purely a vote against the Campbell Liberals tough love agenda from three years ago, the NDP were going to have more seats at the end of this night regardless, with about 12 more seats than I anticipated back in the NDP fold, the night truly belonged to James and should secure her hold on the leadership for at least the next four years.

For Gordon Campbell the loss of seats and vote percentage is a reminder that the gov't serves at the pleasure of the electorate. Stray too far from it's comfort zone and you shall receive a slap on the wrist, stray further over the next for years and Carole James may get a chance to add the title of Premier to her CV.

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