"A very prolonged flood event"

While Friday appeared to be a good day for Terrace, Smithers and other northwest communities hit by flooding waters, a Globe and Mail article suggests that this part of the province is not out of the woods yet.

With rain coming ashore early Saturday morning in Prince Rupert and moving east and temperatures warming up a bit, the potential for more flooding on the numerous waterways of the region increases.

Allan Chapman, head of B.C.'s River Forecast Centre is quoted as saying that "The message for that Skeena-Bulkley area, the northwest corner of the province, is most of the rivers up there are experiencing over-bank flow and some of the flooding ... is of record nature."

With a huge snow pack still in area mountains, the region may be on floodwatch for a number of weeks yet as nature chooses the time and path of its liking.

Hope appears amid rising waters
Fraser River expected to peak over weekend, but bleaker picture painted for northwest
IAN BAILEY
June 8, 2007

VANCOUVER -- Northwestern British Columbia remained swamped by floodwaters yesterday and facing a crisis for the foreseeable future, but officials forecast some hope for the Fraser Valley near the Lower Mainland in days ahead.

The Fraser River at Mission is now expected to peak in the mid-six-metre range by tomorrow and through Monday. Areas not protected by dikes may see some flooding.

Allan Chapman, head of B.C.'s River Forecast Centre, predicted higher river flows than in 1999 when some unprotected areas of the Lower Mainland were flooded.

"As long as those same flows are currently forecast, then we would have to expect again some flooding in some areas," he said. "Not a lot of areas, probably not a lot of damage, and not a lot of homes involved, but we do see the possibility there will be some flooding in unprotected areas," he said in a daily conference call to brief the news media on the situation.

But officials sketched a bleaker scenario for the northwest, with Mr. Chapman referring to "a very prolonged flood event" occurring on the Skeena River near Terrace, and the Nass River.
"The water is still rising as we speak," he said, referring to the Skeena. "It is going to continue rising today, tomorrow, perhaps peaking some time tomorrow, but staying well above flood stage through the weekend, into next week, and probably right through to the end of next week."

Smithers, on the Bulkley River, was also facing a flood risk and "at a maximum flood stage," he said.

"The message for that Skeena-Bulkley area, the northwest corner of the province, is most of the rivers up there are experiencing over-bank flow and some of the flooding ... is of record nature."
Mr. Chapman said the prospect of large frontal rain in the northwest was "the most critical factor" in the flood situation for the next two weeks, suggesting it could affect the entire Fraser River system.

Frontal rain is caused by the cold front or warm front produced when two air masses meet.
That might bring 30 to 60 millimetres of rain to the watershed.

That would be the most dominant weather-risk issue, but Mr. Chapman said that was not foreseen in the weather models.

"We have some rain coming in on the weekend, looking like lighter amounts, moving too fast. Without rain in the next two weeks, this will be the peak of the spring."

Jim Whyte, operations director for the Provincial Emergency Program, said the northwest is facing a bleak situation. Over all in B.C. yesterday, 125 homes had been ordered evacuated and 1,100 homes were on alert status.

"We have water three feet up the sides of houses and people are out of their homes, and they are going to be out of their homes for probably seven to 10 days minimum," Mr. Whyte said, referring to the northwest.

He said the situation was "probably not as severe as it could have been."

But he added: "If it was your home that got flooded, trust me, it's severe. It's a really devastating situation to have your home flooded and to have to return to that.

"That's where we're focusing our efforts, dealing with those people, making sure those people are safe. At the end of it, it will be a recovery phase of getting those people back in their homes, and restoring their lives to normal."

Harvey Sasaki, assistant deputy minister for agriculture, said cattle at risk in the Fraser Valley continue to be moved to safety, with some area farmers in the clear agreeing to shelter animals from neighbouring operations.

"It has reduced the necessity for us to look to places like Washington State for capacity to accommodate those animals," he said.

He also said there was a possibility of turning to farmers on Vancouver Island for assistance if necessary.