Monday, June 14, 2004

Voluez vous votez pour moi, ce soir? Voluez vous votez pour moi?

No harm, no foul, could be the final analysis of the first of the two National leader’s debates in the 2004 election. The Monday night edition was an entirely French affair, as three of the four national leaders trotted out their best Anglo learned French, to take on the Quebecois lilt of Gilles Duceppe.

As far as shear entertainment value goes, the debate was less than enthralling, there were no knock out punches, and no memorable point where you went Wow!. There was no long lasting zinger, like the Mulroney epic of 84 “you had a choice sir”! Instead we were treated to translated versions of three leaders targeting Paul Martin for his share of adscam blame, inquiries about the state of health care and a frequently smiling Jack Layton reminding Quebecers the Liberals had a wee problem in keeping promises.

Stephen Harper managed to avoid being branded a right wing zealot breathing fire and brimstone, in fact his French was rather fluid in that English guy trying to speak French vein, but he rarely stumbled looking for the right word and seemed to hold his own with the commentators asking the questions. The theme of his presentation was basically that the Bloc Quebecois had no hope at all of forming a government and that the decision was between his Conservatives and Martin’s Liberals, a nice try but one which probably won’t bring bus loads of Duceppe voters into the Conservative fold in two weeks. The main attack on Harper came from Martin, who kept going back to the issue of whether a Harper government would have sent Canada to Iraq at the side of the USA and whether Harper prefers Aircraft carriers over Health care, two themes that repeatedly find an audience in Quebec. Harper didn’t take the bait and seemed to hold his own, in what for him was a dry run for the main event Tuesday and a chance to show Quebec that he was an Anglo that paid attention during French class.

Duceppe was the guy to beat in the first debate, his Bloc Quebecois is poised to take a huge number of seats in the province a point which both Martin and Harper made an issue. Suggesting that for Quebec there was more to be gained by being inclusive in a Federal government, rather than on the margins with a protest vote. Duceppe answered that concept by suggesting that he was the only candidate that would truly represent Quebec’s best interests. With the debate Monday basically geared to the Quebec audience it was his one moment in the spotlight, Tuesday’s English debate will relegate him to a bit player, as the other three leaders try to court the vote of those ridings where they have candidates. Duceppe will most likely play the role of the face of future confrontation, the other three leaders will be graded on how they will deal with a sizeable portion of the Quebec vote going to a party dedicated to breaking up the country.

For Martin the Monday debate was a chance to revisit the health care agenda, he frequently challenged Harper to step away from two tier health care. He also stressed that there were two very different visions of Canada for the voter to consider, suggesting that the Harper one would not leave Canada in the form we now know it.

Layton striving to show some relevance in a province where he barely registers a blip on the radar, kept to his themes of positive ideas and time for a change. The gist of which was dismissed by most of the media in Quebec, basically pushing Layton to a fourth line centre position, expecting little ice time in the Quebec portion of the big game in two weeks.

For the most part the pundits believe that Duceppe did what he had to do and did it in entertaining style. Shaking off his normally boring delivery he seemed engaged in the debate and scored some points off of his two protagonists. Martin held his own and did what he wanted to do, seem relaxed and able to get his message out while addressing the advertising scandal that resonates so much in Quebec these days. Harper remained calm, focused and able to get his points out to an audience that most likely won’t vote for him. Having faced most of the heat in the debate he managed to address his comments to the topics at hand and avoided any trouble areas.

An instant poll at the end of the debate gave the nod to Duceppe, not an unexpected result with the bulk of the debate revolving around his party and its expected gain of seats in two weeks.

Tuesday night gives English Canada the opportunity to watch and see who if anyone blinks first. Once again we’ll sit and wait for that one line that could alter the way we mark our X on Election Day. It will be interesting to see the approach of the four leaders on night number two, which issues will be of more importance to the rest of the country than those addressed on Monday.

Will there be more intensity on Tuesday, or will it once again be a reasoned and relatively benign debate, we check in at 8 (est), 5 (pst) to see if there is a stumble, the final two weeks of the campaign could all come down to two hours of television.

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