Pundits Unleashed: Tales of the campaign No. 002

Week number two has showcased the decline of the Liberal invincibility. When the Martinites took office back in November, it was generally considered a fait accompli that the Liberals would call an election, roll over the opposition, banish the separatist party in Quebec to the netherworld and generally reclaim the title of the National Governing Party. Well as Billy Joel once sang in Allentown “something happened on the way to that place”.

Instead it’s a disorganized and dispirited crew of Liberals fighting for their very political lives. So bad is the state of the campaign, that the gang that were banishing any smell of Chretienista aides in November, is scurrying them in the back door to do some fixing in the current campaign.

The wholesale collapse of the Liberal vote has not gone un-noticed by our political punditry. They jockey for position as they aim their pens, microphones and cameras at the foibles of the party that considers governing to be a divine right.

In Quebec Globe and Mail National correspondent Roy MacGregor takes a look at that most living of corpses, the Bloc Québécois and how its supporters are preparing to send the Prime Minister a message. For Martin it must be a confounding feeling, a population angry with his predecessor will take their revenge out on his hide, but as voter after voter across the country has shown, that is exactly what is coming down for the Prime Minister. His task is to stem the tide of animosity.

MacGregor’s counterpart at the Globe, John Ibbitson has two articles that show just how fast the Conservative party has risen in our consciousness during this campaign. He explores the ideas behind Stephen Harper’s campaign and whether Canadians are ready for such a radical shift. In a follow up article Ibbitson tackles the potential candidates for cabinet positions should the Canadian voter throw the Conservatives into the seat of power. The names suggested don’t scream out at you in recognition, but then again the names of the old and tired past Liberal cabinets seem too familiar at times, it will be for the voter to decide which path to follow.

Over at the Toronto Star one of Podunk’s faves Chantal Hebert continues along her path of revelation. She too addresses the rebirth of the Bloc, and how the strength of the separatist party works against Stephen Harper this time. In her finely tuned article she suggests that Harper has little to no chance of electing any Conservatives in Quebec this time around, and how he might be better off this time coming close, but not actually taking power, leaving instead the soon to come headaches of a strong sovereigntist party to Paul Martin. Leaving time for Harper to build some roots in Quebec and finding electoral success in a second re match not too far down the line.

The Star’s Miro Cernetig continues his pulse taking in Quebec as well; finding that star Liberal lieutenant Jean Lapierre has made some serious gaffes during the launch of the Liberal campaign in Quebec. Having to be shored up in a recent visit by Paul Martin, not exactly the scenario the Liberals had when they brought him back into the tent after his flirtation with the separatists. Lapierre was supposed to show the average Quebecer that the Bloc way was a lost cause, instead the Bloc is finding success courting the federalist voter fed up with Liberal corruption and arrogance. With a recent poll showing a Bloc lead of 45% to 36%, Lapierre is not delivering as planned. His inability to bring the vote will provide many more articles for Chantal and Miro over the next four weeks.

The Sun papers let their two top columnists weigh into the campaign with Douglas Fisher wondering aloud whether it will take one or two elections to replace the Liberals as the governing party of the land. For his part, Fisher looks at past elections and finds that the current tea leaves remind him more of Mulroney in 84 and Chretien in 93, rather than the Dief or Trudeau. His bottom line is that the electorate seem wiling to eliminate a stench in Ottawa, rather than elect any heroic leaders.

Greg Weston explores the cynical nature of the Canadian voter and how we really don’t believe much of what they tell us anymore. He weaves that concept into an exploration of the Conservative plans to eliminate subsidies in all their forms, turn Sheila Fraser loose on every government department and rein in the spending of the various governmental development agencies in the West and East. Weston wonders aloud how that will sell in Atlantic Canada, where over 439 million dollars was funnelled this year alone to various economic initiatives. Being a Conservative candidate in the east may be a hard sell if your main platform is to turn off the taps.

So while Paul Martin can take a bit of a breath with that news article he shouldn’t be too content. Bad news is only as far away as the Toronto Star, where we hear of calls for the return of Warren Kinsella mostly from the voice box of Warren Kinsella. He is the much affiliated Chretienista politico, made most famous for his dirty tricks, negative campaigning plans and of carrying a dinosaur onto Canada AM to mock Stockwell Day’s religious beliefs in the last campaign.

Of course bringing Kinsella on board would be a bitter pill for Martin to swallow, as Kinsella has spent his time out of the Liberal spotlight since the departure of Chretien, mainly roasting every move that Martin makes. If Martin brings on Kinsella it’s a signal to start looking for plagues of locusts, horsemen of the apocalypse and other end time indicators.

Kinsella’s return is a concept that Toronto Star pundit David Olive finds fascinating, unlikely but fascinating. One imagines that Martin would be inclined to suffer defeat than bring on the braying visage of Kinsella onto the Paul Martin team.

For the current Martin team member’s, week two has been another bad week of file clipping, precious few positive reviews and an extremely high number of articles praising the campaign of the opposition parties.

Try as they will, the media is reflecting a wave of revenge flowing through the land; it’s not what the Martin folks expected when they formulated the election plan. Like any wave they now have to ride it, either hoping that it dies out before washing a lot of Liberals onto the beach or turning the board in the other direction and catching another more rewarding wave before the 28th.