Thursday, August 05, 2010

Conservative numbers down in Prime Minister's summer of discontent

A controversial summer for the Prime Minister would translate into a near political death experience, at least according to the latest findings of the Ekos polling service.

In numbers released today, Ekos research  reveals that if a snap election were called today, the Harper Conservatives would barely hang on to the political lead. The percentage of voters likely to vote Conservative would be 29.7%, the Liberals 28.5 %, the NDP 17.4% and the Greens 11.4% and the Bloc Quebecois 10.4% while others check in at 2.9%.

The full Ekos survey provides a wealth of information on the polling data and its interpretation which you can read here, while pollster Frank Grave's notes on the poll can be read here.

The Globe and Mail outlines that from that data the Conservatives would suffer a loss of 29 seats in the House of Commons, giving it a razor thin hold on power and most likely resulting in a government of coalition between the Liberals and the NDP.

The EKOS poll of 3,444 Canadians was conducted between July 21 and August 3 and has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The seat totals if a Canadian summer was interrupted by politics would see the Conservatives hold only 115 seats down significantly from the current level of 144, while the Liberals would increase to 99 from 77. The NDP would gain five increasing to 41 while the Bloc Quebecois would increase by two to 50 seats in the House of Commons.

We imagine that over in the Conservative war room, any thoughts of sending Canadians off to the polls may wait a bit longer, perhaps beyond the summer when Canadians would clearly be rather angry with the current government's direction. Not to mention when a few other polling services perhaps offer up a more optimistic forecast of the Cosnservative fortunes for polling day.

National Post-- EKOS poll: support for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives slipping
CBC News-- Conservative lead dries up, poll suggests
Toronto Sun-- Poll shows Tory lead evaporating

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