Thursday, July 01, 2004

Pundits unleashed 007: Election post mortem edition.

With Paul Martin waiting for the final, final results to come in, he and his advisors begin the task of putting together a cabinet reflecting the new reality of Liberalism. Some of his old hands have been given early retirement, some of his hand picked wannabes aren’t going to be and then there’s the Jack Factor! Keeping Smilin’ Jack and his merry men and women happy is going to be a key for the Martinites in their quest for a stable governing experience. While we wait for puffs of white smoke from 24 Sussex the pundits are keeping busy studying the entrails of election night.

Anger management is going to be a key in the Canada of today, Roy MacGregor of the Globe listening to the rumblings of disappointed westerners many of whom seem ready to follow the lead of Quebecers and vote in a party determined to lead the West out. His counterpart Jeffrey Simpson explores the repudiation of the right of centre, a result on Monday that as Simpson described was perfect for an angry electorate. With every party not getting exactly what they wanted, Canadians united in their own form of proportional representation.

John Ibbitson offers up a bit of advice for Stephen Harper as he contemplates his political future. Ibbitson suggests that Stephen do a Tony, as in Tony Blair. Purging the radicals of the Conservative movement will be the key for the leader if he hopes to win the all important urban areas. The advice while valid in content is a hard sell considering Blair’s current popularity. Then again judging by the results perhaps a chat between Tony and Steve would serve both nicely.

Who has his hand out after the votes have been counted? Why its Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, with the Liberal campaign saved by the voters of Metro Toronto McGuinty will be looking for rewards from the Prime Minister. The Globe’s Murray Campbell examines what Martin owes McGuinty and how payment may be made.

Chantal Hebert at the Star tells us its all about survival now, the party leaders need time to digest the results and make the adjustments for the next round. Paul Martin will need to pursue legislation that will not attract the guns of the opposition parties, survival of his government depends on keeping everybody relatively content for the short term. And for two of the four leaders the next months will go a long way to determining their survival as party leaders. The Liberals not used to these near death experiences will be keeping an eye on their leader, while the newly amalgamated Conservatives have a bit of housekeeping to take care of, as Hebert points out in most cases it was old Alliance members that caused Harper his most trouble in this campaign, his survival as leader will depend on his ability to show that the far right wing is not the dominant force in his party.

Richard Gwyn calls us liars! Yes we apparently fibbed, to the pollsters, the open line shows, the local pulse takers from the parties and even to ourselves. When he’s not recounting our mistruths he takes time to examine the two main parties and where they’re going. The results of Monday putting the Liberals back into the era of Trudeau, this coalition of Liberal voters the replica of Trudeau’s meshing of urban and socially active Canadians in the seventies. For the Conservatives Gwyn says think Stanfield and Clark, the only hope that they have in retaking some of the centre which they lost badly on Monday.

Miro Cernetig and Graham Fraser in Quebec followed the Bloc’s happy gathering Monday night. Separatism is alive and well with the Bloc supporters dreaming once again of the battle of all battles finally going there way. All that stands in their way is the provincial government in Quebec City. Until the Parti Quebecois get back into power there will be no referendum. And should the separatist party find electoral success in three years time, Cernetig says that they may have on Gilles Duceppe leading the battle for independence. Fraser spent time reading the tea leaves for the federalist parties in Quebec, he mentioned the name of Bernard Lord in his article. The New Brunswick premier has seen his stock rise in the last 48 hours, for a breakthrough in the east he may be the right guy at the right time, but one wonders what that would do the party in the West?

Greg Weston of the Sun papers examines the one that got away; an election that the Conservatives believed was theirs for the taking. Weston examines the fall out from the disappointing returns and suggests that if there is to be a change of fortunes they may need a change of leader. He also has some words of advice for us all, take two aspirins and hold on to our wallets!

And how will our next Parliament function, Dean of the Hill Douglas Fisher takes us for a stroll through the upcoming days of legislation. Like the ghost of Christmas future Fisher rattles his chains and points out the highlights and low points ahead. Fisher says he expects an edgy place during the next term, a livelier place than the past few years and most importantly a well attended forum, if we’re paying our MP’s for the amount of time they spend in the House, we may finally get our money’s worth for a change.

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