Tuesday, July 05, 2005

A gathering at Gleneagles

Tony Blair puts on his best suit and best face later Wednesday and welcomes his fellow G8 homeboys to his place in the moors. The G8 circus has arrived in Scotland and ringmaster Tony has his work cut out for him.

African debt relief, the Kyoto accord, theMiddle East peace process and Nuclear proliferation are all on the discussion list, with each participating nation having it's own take on what is the proper way to deal with each issue.

The problem with these G8 sessions is that they usually end up as nothing but photo ops, with little tangible movement ever coming to pass. They 8 take their walks on the beach, roll up their sleeves and look busy but after the usual bromides about doing what needs to be done are made, it's as though everyone closes their talking points binders and shoves it on the top shelf up where the dust gathers.

This particular session should be exciting if only for the current animosity that seems to be raging between Brits and the French. Still annoyed with Britain over it's recent ruminations on the state of the EU, many feel that French President Jacques Chirac will take great pleasure in making Tony Blair's head table stint as uncomfortable as possible. That and the rather tenuous hold on power, that many of the participants have in their home countries, could make this the grumpy summit.

George Bush attends with many other things on his mind than the adventuresome agenda put forward by Blair, with a war raging in Iraq and support slipping on the homefront Bush may be a tad preoccupied with home concerns to take note of Blairs international ideas, this despite the fact that Bush finds Blair rather useful in the larger picture.

Vladimir Putin attends with the Russian nose still a tad out of joint over it's loss of international stature over the last few years, with Russia starting to flex it's military and trade muscles once again with nations on the US watch list, it could be tense moment or two around the sitting room at Gleneagles.

Berlusconi of Italy and Schroeder of Germany both have issues in the EU to deal with and the current spitting match between England and France tends to distract their fellow Europeans from the job of uniting Europe at hand. What they can bring to the table at the G8 has yet to be determined.

Japan of course is still trying to find it's ecomic way after what seems like a never ending recession that has lasted over 10 years, they of course are quite interested in the Kyoto accord and probably have a wary eye on their neighbor's in North Korea regarding nuclear proliferation so they'll be looking for progress on those files.

Then there's Canada, Bartender Paul will leave the Guinness tap behind after his brief journey to the ancestral homeland and take his place with the other G8ers. Martin apparently wishing to support Tony Blair's spirit if not monetary concept of African debt relief and aid. Paul who of course counts Bono as a confidant is back on the African relief page, this despite any tangible movement on the file in the last year of his governance. For Martin it's a chance to try and play the broker between the Americans, French and British, trying to reach a compromise on the touchier issues on the G8 agenda. The only problem of course being that he's not exactly in the Bush orbit at the moment, Blair would have more luck by launching that push on his own. France never seems to take Canada seriously at these shindigs and our day to day interaction with most of the other participants is not such to put us in a dominant position, so it will be interesting to see what role PM the PM can play with his fellow leaders of the world's richest nations.

As he heads for Gleneagles, Paul has George on his list of people to be moved. Martin claims that he will be "pushing the Americans" on the climate agenda, but whether Mr. Bush pays any more attention than he has in the past, remains to be seen.

For Paul just being able to say he can come back next year may be an achievement, there are some that feel Canada should be bounced from the G8 lineup (taking Italy with us!), replaced by China or India who may not be richer than us, but certainly are causing many more ripples on the world economy than we are at the moment. Canada's saving grace is that many more people question the place of Russia in the G8 at the moment considering that nation's precarious economic and political situation.

The recent Live 8 concerts are not too far removed from the front pages of the talking points, Blair will use that backdrop as a reminder to the G8 leaders that they must do something tangible for African relief, not the usual profound announcements followed by years and years of study. Some kind of program will no doubt be provided to address the issue, one wonders if it will be workable with such divergent interests at the table and whether it will be enough for those that presently sit quite far away from the comfortable chairs of Gleneagles.

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